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More signs of Anti-Incumbent Wave

Over at Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, David Wasserman and Larry J. Sabato
of the U.Va. Center for Politics, write: "To be certain, the 2006 midterm election cycle promises to feature the most strongly anti-incumbent mood since 1994, a fact Republicans might argue cuts both ways, though the Crystal Ball maintains it will disproportionately debilitate the ruling party."

The evidence I am seeing in the polls confirms this view. However, in the Sabato article entitled: The 2006 Midterms: Guilt by Association?, Wasserman and Sabato indicate victory for Democrat majority in one or both houses of Congress may depend on their ability to link their GOP opponents to Bush policy and doctrine. While that may or may not be true, I believe this view masks an underlying extreme dissastisfaction on the part of voters toward Congress regardless of party. Further, it masks the poll results showing a dramatic numeric rise in self-identified independent voters, and an exodus of voters from both the Republican and Democratic parties.

If this exodus is proved out by poll analysis in November, third party and independent organizations will need to entirely remake their strategy to take advantage of this new receptiveness by 10's of millions of voters to an alternative to the Republocrat Parties.

In my correspondence with Green and Libertarian Party leaders in recent weeks, I have learned that there are some cooperative coalitions being created between them and other third parties including the likes of the Constitution Party and Reform Party. Some of these coalitions are agreeing to vote for each other's candidates in districts where they don't have each other's candidates runnning head to head. Other multiple 3rd party coalitions are forming also focused on lowering ballot access restrictions controlled by Republocrat machinery in their states or districts. This is true in Pinellas, Florida, North Carolina, and Texas.

It is clear there are some new dynamics underway. One is in the way 3rd Parties, once utterly uncooperative with each other, are now beginning to form coalition partnerships with each other to bring down the Republocrat machinery which, has for so long, marginalized third parties to the sidelines. Another is showing up as an Independent voter party, and organizations springing up around the country which are solidifying independent voter action against the Republocrat party's candidates.

And lastly, is the incredible increase in disgruntled voters who, in the past, would simply stay home and not vote. But, one poll shows 20% of disenchanted Republicans may vote for a Democrat this November. This is a remarkable turn of events, for these voters are not changing their party, just the party of the candidate they will vote for. This may be an historical precedent if November's poll analysis bears out that a majority of these actually showed up to vote for candidates of the opposing party.

(June 27, Pew Research poll supporting many of the trends remarked upon above.)

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2 Comments

Don't re-elect irresponsible incumbents.

Why?

Because:

  • it is the easiest thing to do, and people naturally seek the path of least pain and effort. We just haven't truly discovered it yet, but people almost always, eventually, find the path of least resisitance, effort, pain, and misery.

  • it is the most logical, common-sense thing to do.

  • it is the easiest way to protest. People are frustrated, and see that what we have been doin' ain't workin' .

  • it is the least expensive solution.

  • it is the most peaceful solution.

  • it is the most fair and just solution.

  • it is the most obvious solution to term limits.

  • it is the least complex method.

  • it does not require yet another party.

  • it does not require yet another candidate to save us (perhaps an unrealistic hope).

  • it is the most likely to invalidate the influence of big money.

  • it is the easiest way to send a message to congress to reform themselves or have a very short career.

  • it is the most effective way to create some peer pressure and incentive for incumbents to police their own ranks.

  • it is the most likely way to decrease corruption.

  • it is the safest action, that will balance power, and not merely shift it or strip all power from government to accomplish anything.

  • it is the most responsible thing to do.

  • it is the one simple thing we were alwasys supposed to do, all along. After we have tried everything else, perhaps we will try the one common-sense, responsible thing we should have been doing all along, always: Don't re-elect irresponsible incumbent politicians.

Now, how can anyone argue with that?

Oh, but they do.
They are trapped in the partisan warfare.
Many are all too fond of wallowing in the petty bickering and partisan warfare. They are more concerned with demonizing their fellow Americans, and perpetuating the petty partisan warfare that is fueled by incumbent politicians.

They think "THEIR" party is the solution (like any zealot).
But, "THEIR" party is merely the sum of its parts.
If some of those parts are broken, then remove the broken parts.
Simply stop re-electing irresponsible incubments.

But, you know what the biggest reason people resist that simple logic?

They are distracted.
They are more concerned with not letting the "OTHER" party win a seat, than they are ignoring that bought-and-paid-for incumbent politicians in all parties are just taking turns being irresponsible and corrupt, and threatening the future and security of the nation.

  • The bad news is that things will have to get much worse before they get better.
  • The good news is that we are on the right path to make things much worse before they can get better.

Incumbency may be a growing handicap.

That may be part of Lieberman's problem?

When a long-time, moderate incumbent like Joe Leiberman is at risk of losing his cu$hy, coveted incumbency, you certainly have to wonder?

To deny a growing anti-incumbent sentiment may lead to a shocking revelation for Democrats in the coming elections. While I think many voters will do the flip-flop and vote for Democrats, it's just a temporary fix, because simply letting the majority of incumbents of both parties continue to take turns being irresponsible will not resolve the pressing problems we face, growing in number and severity.

Hopefully, the D.R.I.P , D.R.I.P., D.R.I.P., one D.R.I.P. at a time will eventually become a roaring cascade of renewal and progress:

Don't
Re-elect
Irresponsible, Incumbent
Politicians

Thanks to Jackie for the acronym.