Falling Incumbents
Sabato's and Wasserman's analysis regarding the Senate races, appear to me to be dead on. 20 or more House of Representative incumbents will lose their job. Democrats may or may not take control of the Senate, the stats and analysis say it is a flip of the coin. But, whether Dem's take control or not in either house of Congress, is not nearly as important as the millions of voters (besides Democrats), who will have cast their anti-incumbent votes. Having done so in 2006, means it will be easier in 2008 and beyond.
The 18-24 year old vote will likely be the highest in numbers of any mid-term election in recent history. This is also great news for the anti-incumbent movement. But, the surprise, I believe will come in the weeks to follow the election from the crunched numbers and statistics which will examine voting trends in hundreds of different ways. The surprise will be the huge increase in Independent voters, stealing power from both the Democratic and Republican parties and threatening their incumbents in future elections.
Some polling hints that this will be the case. Independent voters tend not to vote party ticket. Independent voters reserve their right to swing their vote against poor government results, and are less likely to fall prey to rhetoric and idle promises. Independent voters are more attentive to fact and news, than party devotee voters, and they tend to hate negative, uninformative campaign ads. All of these spell a weakening in the Republocrat parties, and a growing receptiveness among voters to adopt the anti-incumbent stance.
As the leadership of Vote Out Incumbents Democracy has said from its humble beginnings, restoring effective, efficient, and accountable government will not happen in one election cycle, nor with the removal of 5 or 10% of incumbents. It will take an anti-incumbent grass roots growth among voters over the course of at least 3 election cycles, in which, the incumbent reelection rate drops from an average of 90% to between 50 and 60% across those 6 years. It is clear we will witness the first installment in the results from next Tuesday's election.
When new, and career, politicians in Congress, face no better chance of reelection than the toss of a coin, then and only then, will they tell their
political parties, their wealthy campaign donors, their bribing lobbyists and special interests: "Sorry, guys, but the voters expect results and solutions, and all your money isn't going to get me reelected if I don't deliver results and solutions to my constituents."
That is how the anti-incumbent revolution in American politics will take place, and force politicians back to the job to which they were hired to do:
- Manage the federal government in a way that solves its most demanding problems, instead of putting them off, making them worse.
- End the waste, fraud, and abuse of office which squander and raise our children's future tax withholdings from their paychecks.
- Enact policies which will grow the middle class instead of squeezing it into an hourglass shape.
- Halt the purchase of legislation which benefits the few at the expense of the many, like unsecured borders, and offshore corporate accounts that permit corporations to beat paying their fair share of our nation's tax burden.
This vision of a far better government of, by, and for the people, is now potentially achievable. This goal is just waiting on us to pick up the vision, pass it on to our friends, families, and associates in the clearest terms possible. Our job is to support and spread the vision. This vision has no viable competitors. There exists no better plan to clean up Congress and force it to solve more problems than it creates.
This vision will sell itself to millions of American voters. The next six years of party bickering, grid lock, and failure to tackle the tough problems will guarantee that. Our job is to share the vision and the plan with 100 million Americans over the next 4 to 6 years. But that will take media ads, book publishings, phone banks, bulk mailings, and all these will require your and my support, and membership dollars, to make it happen.
Don't let this vision and plan for an American government which insures our prosperity, liberty, and security for us and our children, fade for lack of support. It is up to you and me, who see the vision and have made it our own, to make sure it reaches all the rest of American voters. It is a big job. It will take sacrifice. But, the reward is getting our country and government back, for the American people, for thousands of tomorrows to come.









Comments
Yes, it will take time.
We may not have a lot of time, but the sooner the better.
I know we're reaching some voters.
My family, relatives, neighbors, and some associates are on board.
That's what it takes.
It's up to all of us to discuss with others (but not push ourselves upon others) the problem and solution.
Every American citizen must help to energize and educate their fellow man, woman, and child.
In a voting nation, an educated electorate is paramount. Ignorance is not an excuse.
If we don't act, we will revisit the painful lessons of times past, where some that abuse vast wealth and power seek to control government, tyranny steadily grows, corruption grows, and we learn the hard way again.
Posted by: d.a.n | November 4, 2006 7:38 PM